{
  "hypothesis": "H4 BTC-CRASH ALT REBOUND (live XSEC-CrashRebound v2 rule): after a BTC crash, the most-dropped liquid alts rebound over the next 24h (forced liquidation overshoot). PIT replication; original Bybit backtest test +1.46% t+2.10 per event day on a survivorship-biased universe.",
  "registered_utc": "2026-11-04T23:17:34Z",
  "data": "pit.db Binance USDT-M 4h klines + funding, 683 crypto perps incl. delisted, 2020-01..2026-10",
  "trigger": "on a closed 4h bar, ANY of BTCUSDT 4h <= -3%, 12h <= -4%, 24h <= -5%",
  "once": "at most one basket per UTC day, none while a basket is open (24h hold)",
  "basket": "the 20 most-dropped (24h return) crypto USDT perps trading at the bar with trailing 24h quote turnover >= $10M, excluding BTC and stables (XSEC blacklist not reconstructable historically, ignored)",
  "trade": "long equal-weight at that bar close, exit at the close 24h later; delisted mid-hold -> last close",
  "costs": "0.107% round trip + funding over [close, close+24h) (long pays positive)",
  "metric": "mean net return per BASKET (one obs per basket); t clustered by ISO week",
  "split": "TRAIN baskets before 2023-09-20, TEST on/after",
  "confirm_bar": "TEST mean > 0 with week-clustered t >= 2.0, TRAIN same sign",
  "fail": "TEST t < 1.5 -> recommend stopping the Crash trial; between -> keep it to its 15-basket live verdict, no tuning",
  "decisive_cost_stress": "the verdict must ALSO hold (t >= 2.0) with an extra 0.30% round-trip crash-day slippage; reported at 0.5% and 1.0% too",
  "secondary_reported_not_decisive": ["entry one 4h bar late", "excess vs BTC over the same 24h", "N=10 and N=40", "v1: 24h<=-5% only, all liquid alts", "by year", "trigger type"]
}