{
  "hypothesis": "H5 MECHANISM (dose-response): the crash rebound is forced-liquidation overshoot, so baskets (and legs) whose open interest was flushed harder into the crash rebound more.",
  "registered_utc": "2026-11-04T23:23:27Z",
  "events": "the v2 crash baskets from test_crash.baskets(D) (live rule, PIT universe), unchanged",
  "data": "Binance data/futures/um/daily/metrics (5-min sum_open_interest, in contracts = price-independent), fetched only for each leg + BTC on the entry day and the day before",
  "flush": "per leg: OI at the entry bar close / OI 24h earlier - 1 (nearest 5-min row within 15 min of each timestamp, else missing). Basket flush = mean over legs with data; basket used only if >= 10 legs have data",
  "primary": "Spearman rho(basket flush, basket net return) across ALL usable baskets; prediction rho < 0; CONFIRMED if one-sided permutation p < 0.05 (10,000 shuffles)",
  "secondary_within_basket": "per leg, flush and net return demeaned within basket; pooled OLS slope, SE clustered by basket; prediction slope < 0; reported, supportive not decisive",
  "secondary_reported": ["tercile split of baskets by flush: mean return low/mid/high-flush", "TRAIN/TEST halves (2023-09-20) signs", "BTC's own OI flush instead of the basket's"],
  "fail": "rho >= 0 or p >= 0.20 -> the liquidation story is not supported; treat crash rebound as unexplained, do not scale it",
  "no_tuning": "flush window (24h) and measure fixed here; no alternative windows will be tried on this data"
}