{
  "hypothesis": "H8 CROWDED-SHORTS SQUEEZE (live XSEC-SqueezeLSR rule): when most accounts on a perp are short, the coin outperforms over the next 72h. PIT replication on Binance; original Bybit backtest (frozen top-200, per event-day t) test +4.11% t+3.74.",
  "data": "pit.db Binance 4h + funding; Binance data/futures/um/daily/metrics count_long_short_ratio (global ACCOUNT long/short ratio, 5-min), free archive",
  "signal": "count_long_short_ratio at the 4h bar OPEN time t <= 0.6667 (== Bybit buyRatio <= 0.40, since buyRatio = LS/(1+LS)); nearest 5-min row within 15 min",
  "sampling": "decision days restricted to UTC days with (days since 2021-12-01) % 3 == 0, all six 4h bars on those days; fixed by calendar, independent of outcomes; one event per symbol per sampled day (first qualifying bar); 72h hold ends before the next sampled day's bars",
  "universe": "crypto USDT perps trading at t (PIT incl. delisted), excluding BTC and stables, trailing 24h quote turnover >= $3M at t",
  "trade": "long at the close of bar t, exit at the close of bar t+72h, 0.107% RT + funding (long pays positive); dead coin -> last close",
  "metric": "event-weighted mean net return; SE clustered by ISO week",
  "split": "TRAIN entries before 2023-09-20 (data from 2021-12-01), TEST on/after",
  "confirm_bar": "TEST mean > 0, week-clustered t >= 2.0, TRAIN same sign",
  "fail": "TEST t < 1.5 -> recommend stopping the live Squeeze trial; between -> keep it to its 150-leg verdict, no tuning",
  "test_t_min": 2.0,
  "fail_t_below": 1.5,
  "secondary_reported": [
    "thresholds 0.5 and 0.8 (LS)",
    "excess vs equal-weight liquid basket same 72h",
    "median/win (lottery check)",
    "drop best 5 weeks",
    "by year",
    "follow-the-crowd mirror: LS >= 1.5 long"
  ],
  "no_tuning": "threshold, hold, sampling and costs fixed here",
  "registered_utc": "2026-11-05T01:49:52Z"
}